WILL THE WEAPONS COME ?

Manas Pal

It is not the question that what were there in the recently signed Naga Accord - or what would be the modalities for final settlement of the accord -that makes me a bit uncomfortable. Recently R N Ravi who acted as the chief interlocutor assured that the agreement had not incorporated any point that would suggest any change in state boundaries in the region. The assurance would definitely allay the apprehension of the people of Manipur as well as Arunachal Pradesh that their state boundaries would not be compromised for bringing about peace in Nagaland.

What, however, I apprehend is that when everything will be finalized the government apparatus and, obviously the Naga rebel leaders who participated in the peace process, may face a serious problem in regard to disarming the NSCN -IM cadres.

After return of the peace following long drawn violent confrontations, conflicts and war- where non state cadres had taken active part- disarming the armed cadres had always been an arduous and complicated task.  For any armed and trained guerrilla cadre in any conflict zone who spent many years carrying his firearms 24 hours under the bare sky or in shady camps somewhere in deep forest or in mountain ranges facing the shadow of death from security forces or for that matter from rival groups, disarming would simply mean an amputation of a vital limb. They would not mind to eschew violence, but they would certainly find it impossible to discard their weapons, especially the personal holding.  The reassuring sense of security that emanates from the cold AK 47 or a .9 mm Pistol or sub machinegun would vanish as soon as the arms would be taken away. They would feel like standing naked in the open.  

In 1971-72 after creation of Bangladesh both the Indian army and also the Mukti Bahini commanders had a troubled time to disarm huge and happily wild Bengali guerrillas. It took a long time and carefully planned strategy to disarm the Bengali guerrillas.  

In my own state Tripura same had been the experience in several occasions in the past. In fact, in almost all the militant group surrenders the experience was the same- the militants did not lay down their fire arms. They kept them buried only to be used later.

Let me give an example .

On August 12, 1988  Tripura National Volunteers ( TNV) under the leadership of Bijoy Hrangkhwal  signed tripartite Accord and then surrendered en masse in remote Govinda bari . Altogether 437 TNV militants surrendered, they laid down only 64 firearms. Most of the fire arms – which were not deposited --were later dug out from their hidden places and used by NLFT which was virtually an off shoot of the TNV.

In April, 1993 after the return of the Left Front government under Dasarath Deb, All Tripura Tribal Force  on September 6, 1993 surrendered at Shikaribari following a bipartite accord. A total of 1635 militants surrendered –most of them were fake – and they placed before the authorities some .303 rifles. Since the outfit got split at that time, most of the arms remained with the cadres loyal to Ranjit Debarma who spearheaded the new group under the new nomenclature ‘All Tripura Tiger Force’. Now, after two decades of brutal militancy ATTF is defunct and Ranjit is arrested. None knows where had the massive cache of weapons – those including AKs, LMGs, RPG launchers etc , gone.  We often came across some reports from Bangladesh that said RAB found out huge weaponry in the deep jungles of Satcherri areas which had once been the base camp of the All Tripura Tiger Force. Same story went with the small groups like Tripura Resurrection Army  or NLFT –Nayanbasi .

The disarming task of the NSCN-IM cadres is likely to be an extremely difficult task for many reasons. By nature Nagas are warriors and like any martial race weapons are virtually a part of their life. Besides, the Naga  problem is the oldest militancy problem in the South East Asia and the guerrillas were for many decades got accustomed to carry their weapons – ceasefire or no ceasefire- sometimes openly , sometimes in a not-so-concealed manner. Some of the weapons were actually handed down to them from the ‘elders’--the past generation guerrillas.

Apart from their emotional attachment with the firearms, there are some practical problems also for the cadres ready to come over ground.

NSCN-IM is not the only Naga rebel outfit in the region. There are many other outfits like their arch rival NSCN Khaplang, NSCN Kitovi etc and also some ethnic Naga groups formed by Zeliang Nagas ( mostly from Tamenglong and adjoining areas of Manipur). NSCN-IM rebels had been often engaged in bloody and fierce shoot outs and killings with them. Disarmed NSCN IM cadres would genuinely face mortal threat from the other groups- all of them had already rejected the August 3 peace accord.

While it is expected that senior leaders of NSCN- I M will be allowed to carry their personal weapons and will also, perhaps, get security cover from the State as well as from their own personnel, for the lower level cadres disarming will undoubtedly cause a seriously insecure situation. In this sense several selective killings for revenge and elimination at local level for strategic reasons by the rival groups could not be ruled out altogether.

Of course, the government and the NSCN –IM top brass have given due thought to the problem and are expected to come out with a well planned strategy to overcome it. But keeping in mind the reported NSCN-IM strength of about 6000 guerrillas, it is to be seen how much weaponry can really be brought over ground. Even if one wants to set aside the NSCN-IM’s ‘institutional’ arms cache – the sheer personnel strength means 6000 personal firearms. One way can be the straight and wholesome military intervention for the disarming task in the nine designated camps where the guerrillas has been staying since ceasefire instead of expecting a formal lay down ceremony as it happened  in other cases.  Just imagine even if a small part of the weapons of the 6000 plus NSCN –IM cadres stays back in the underground, it would inevitably mean one more problem for future. After all firearms have a tendency to open up with slightest provocation. Any cadre who would not deposit his fire arms would mean a virtual free lancer ready for adventures, and well, misadventures too.
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Post Script : Most of the NSCN IM arms are sophisticated and supllied by China and bought from open sources i.e arms smugllers. If you remember massive arms haul in Chittagong Port -- a large part of the arms were meant for the NSCN IM. They also used to sell/ supply the arms to other outfits like NLFT in Tripura. Many arms were also brought and sold to them from the Khmer Rouge. According to reports the LTTE had also shared weapons with the NSCN IM . Drugs is also reported to have played a key role in the arms procurement with an intenational network. END